Journal cover Journal topic
Wind Energy Science The interactive open-access journal of the European Academy of Wind Energy
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-48
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research articles
18 Dec 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Wind Energy Science (WES).
Very short-term forecast of near-coastal flow using scanning lidars
Laura Valldecabres1, Alfredo Peña2, Michael Courtney2, Lueder von Bremen1, and Martin Kühn1 1ForWind – University of Oldenburg, Institute of Physics, Küpkersweg 70, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
2DTU Wind Energy, Risø Campus, Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Abstract. Wind measurements can reduce the uncertainty in the prediction of wind energy production. Nowadays, commercially available scanning lidars can scan the atmosphere up to several kilometres. Here, we use lidar measurements to forecast near-coastal winds with lead times of five minutes. Using Taylor's frozen turbulence hypothesis together with local topographic corrections, we demonstrate that wind speeds at a downstream position can be forecast by using measurements from a scanning lidar performed upstream in a very short-term horizon. The study covers ten periods characterized by neutral and stable atmospheric conditions. Our methodology shows smaller forecasting errors than those of the persistence method and the ARIMA model. We discuss the applicability of this forecasting technique with regards to the characteristics of the lidar trajectories, the site-specific conditions and the atmospheric stability.
Citation: Valldecabres, L., Peña, A., Courtney, M., von Bremen, L., and Kühn, M.: Very short-term forecast of near-coastal flow using scanning lidars, Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2017-48, in review, 2017.
Laura Valldecabres et al.
Laura Valldecabres et al.
Laura Valldecabres et al.

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Short summary
This paper focuses on the use of scanning lidars for very short-term forecasting of wind speeds in a near-coastal area. An extensive data set of offshore lidar measurements up to 6 km has been used for this purpose. Using dual-doppler measurements, the topographic characteristics of the area have been modelled. Assuming Taylor's frozen turbulence and applying the topographic corrections we demonstrate that we can forecast wind speeds with more accuracy than the benchmarks persistence or ARIMA.
This paper focuses on the use of scanning lidars for very short-term forecasting of wind speeds...
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